Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Twins vs Tigers 7/26/24)

Minnesota Twins

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park on July 26, 2024, both teams come off winning performances. The Tigers, who last played on July 25, delivered a dominant 3-0 shutout against the Guardians. Meanwhile, the Twins edged out the Phillies 5-4 in a tightly contested match.

This is a key American League Central matchup, with the Tigers holding a 51-53 record, indicative of an average season, and the Twins boasting a 56-45 record, suggesting a more successful campaign. The Tigers will turn to Keider Montero on the mound, who has struggled this season with a 5.97 ERA and a 1-3 Win/Loss record over six starts. Montero’s advanced stats reveal some bad luck, as his 4.38 xFIP is significantly lower than his ERA, suggesting he could improve.

On the flip side, the Twins will counter with Pablo Lopez, one of the top pitchers in the league, ranked 17th among MLB starters. Despite his 4.86 ERA, Lopez’s 3.15 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and should fare better moving forward. Lopez has started 20 games this year with an 8-7 record and is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, striking out 6.3 batters and allowing just 2.3 earned runs.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled, ranking 25th in MLB overall, 23rd in team batting average, and 26th in stolen bases. Their lone bright spot has been Riley Greene, with a .264 batting average and 17 home runs. In contrast, the Twins boast the 6th best offense, ranking 7th in batting average and 8th in home runs. Willi Castro has been a key contributor, batting .262 with 10 stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Tigers as underdogs with a 41% win probability, versus the Twins’ 59%. The Tigers’ bullpen ranks 12th, while the Twins’ bullpen is 5th, which could be crucial in a close game. With Comerica Park setting the stage, fans can expect an intriguing contest as these AL Central foes clash.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-190)
  The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  As it relates to his home runs, Royce Lewis has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 44.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Keider Montero has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 9.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Gio Urshela has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Today, Carson Kelly is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (88th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)