Betting Odds and Bets for Yankees vs Nationals – 8/26/24

New York Yankees

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the New York Yankees on August 26, 2024, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. As the Nationals sit at 59-72 this season, they are well below average, while the Yankees, with a strong 77-54 record, are enjoying a great season. The Nationals’ struggles are particularly evident in their offense, which ranks 21st in MLB, while the Yankees boast the league’s top offense, making this matchup intriguing from a betting perspective.

In their last outing on August 25, the Nationals managed a solid 5-1 victory over the Atlanta Braves, a much-needed boost after a string of disappointing performances. Mitchell Parker, who is projected to start, has had an average year with a 4.26 ERA and a 7-7 record. While Parker pitched well in his last start, going seven innings with just one earned run, he has struggled to pitch deep into games, projecting to average only 4.5 innings today.

On the other side, Nestor Cortes of the Yankees provides a compelling contrast. Cortes has a respectable 4.00 ERA and is considered the 48th best pitcher in MLB. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his last start, showing his capability to dominate opposing lineups. The projections suggest Cortes is poised to limit the Nationals’ offensive output significantly.

Betting markets favor the Yankees, with a moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%. Meanwhile, the Nationals are underdogs at +155, reflecting an implied win probability of 38%. However, projections seem to indicate that the Yankees might have greater odds of winning than the betting lines suggest, adding an extra layer of intrigue for bettors. With a Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, this matchup promises to be an exciting contest in the nation’s capital.

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Nestor Cortes’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (53.8% compared to 47.5% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in baseball: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Mitchell Parker’s 2196-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 19th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.9-mph figure last year has fallen off to 86.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 68 of their last 119 games (+10.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 107 games (+19.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 games at home (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)