Betting Odds and Bets for Twins vs White Sox – July 09, 2024

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins prepare to face off on July 10, 2024, the stakes are clear. The White Sox, sitting at 26-67, are enduring a rough season, while the Twins, at 52-39, are enjoying a strong campaign. This game marks the second in a double-header and the third in their series, with the Twins having taken the previous game 8-6 on July 8.

The pitching matchup features Drew Thorpe for the White Sox and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. Thorpe, a right-hander ranked #115 in advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a 3-1 record with a 3.71 ERA. However, his 5.09 xFIP suggests he might regress. Lopez, ranked #18, has an 8-7 record with a 5.18 ERA, but his 3.19 xFIP indicates better performance ahead.

Thorpe’s high-flyball tendency (38 FB%) could be problematic against the Twins’ powerful offense, which ranks 5th in home runs. Meanwhile, Lopez’s low walk rate (5.3 BB%) may not be as advantageous against a White Sox lineup that already ranks 2nd in fewest walks.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 29th in both overall offense and batting average, 27th in home runs, and 16th in stolen bases. Their best hitter this season, Andrew Vaughn, has been a bright spot. Over the last week, Nicky Lopez has led the way, batting .313 with a 1.013 OPS.

The Twins boast the 3rd-best offense, ranking 4th in batting average and 5th in home runs, though they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 25th. Willi Castro has been their standout hitter, while Jose Miranda has been on fire recently, hitting .714 with a 1.834 OPS over his last six games.

The White Sox bullpen, ranked 29th, contrasts sharply with the Twins’ 4th-ranked bullpen. Given these disparities, it’s no surprise that THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Twins with a 62% win probability, while the betting odds give them a 58% implied win probability. With the Twins’ potent offense and Lopez’s projected bounce-back, they are well-positioned to secure another victory.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 7 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Pablo Lopez ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+130)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Chicago White Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Tommy Pham’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 93.9-mph figure last season has lowered to 89.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 72 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  Andrew Benintendi has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+17.00 Units / 170% ROI)