Betting Odds and Bets for Mets vs Phillies – 9/15/24

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets face off for the third game of their series at Citizens Bank Park on September 15, 2024. With the Phillies in a strong position at 89-59, they are firmly in the playoff chase, while the Mets sit at 81-67, striving to secure a Wild Card spot. This matchup carries weight as both teams look to improve their standings in the competitive National League East.

In their last encounter on September 14, the Phillies edged out the Mets 6-4, continuing their solid momentum. Cristopher Sanchez, projected to start for Philadelphia, is coming off a strong performance where he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs. Sanchez, who ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, boasts an impressive ERA of 3.33 this season. His ability to induce ground balls (59% GB%) could play a crucial role against a powerful Mets offense that has launched 182 home runs this season, ranking 5th in the league.

On the other side, Paul Blackburn is set to take the mound for the Mets. However, Blackburn’s recent struggles, including a disastrous outing where he allowed five earned runs in just two innings on August 23, raise concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in offensive production. The projections suggest that Philadelphia could score around 4.69 runs today, highlighting their offensive strength.

Given the Phillies’ current form and Sanchez’s capability, they may present value for bettors, especially with their moneyline set at -130. Expect a competitive matchup as both teams aim for critical victories in their playoff pursuits.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Recording 17.1 outs per game per started this year on average, David Peterson places him the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Typically, hitters like Jose Iglesias who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cristopher Sanchez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect negative regression for the New York Mets offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Cristopher Sanchez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 7.36 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.06 — a 0.7 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia’s 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #22 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 90 games (+15.67 Units / 13% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.85 Units / 88% ROI)