Betting Odds and Bets for Brewers vs Pirates – 9/25/24

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their clash on September 25, 2024, at PNC Park, the stakes are clear. The Brewers, having secured a strong 90-67 record, are enjoying a successful season and are in a prime position for postseason action. Meanwhile, the Pirates, with a 73-84 record, have endured a below-average campaign and are out of the playoff picture.

The Brewers are coming off a series opener win against the Pirates, showcasing their offensive prowess and solidifying their spot in the National League Central standings. On the mound for Milwaukee will be Freddy Peralta, ranked 29th among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Peralta boasts an impressive 3.69 ERA and has been a reliable starter throughout the season. His ability to strike out batters will be a key factor against a Pirates lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

For the Pirates, Luis Ortiz takes the hill, carrying a 3.43 ERA. While his ERA suggests strong performance, his xFIP of 4.64 indicates he might have been a bit lucky this season. Ortiz, ranked 202nd, has been inconsistent, and he’ll face a Brewers offense that ranks 10th in overall performance. Milwaukee’s lineup, led by Rhys Hoskins, has been effective, ranking 8th in batting average and 3rd in stolen bases, providing Peralta with a solid cushion.

The Pirates’ offense, ranked 28th overall, will need to find ways to generate runs against Peralta. Oneil Cruz has been a bright spot, showing power with two home runs in the past week. However, the Pirates’ struggles in power and hitting could be a disadvantage against Peralta’s high-strikeout approach.

With a Game Total set at just 7.5 runs, this matchup leans towards a low-scoring affair. The Brewers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, translating to a 59% implied win probability, while the projections give them a 57% chance of victory. For those looking at the betting lines, the Pirates’ odds might present some value if they can capitalize on any mistakes from their divisional rivals.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Freddy Peralta’s curveball utilization has decreased by 5.7% from last year to this one (12.5% to 6.8%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brice Turang’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.2-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 73.8-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Luis L. Ortiz’s 94.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph fall off from last season’s 95.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck this year. His 21.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 75 away games (+9.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games (+19.90 Units / 80% ROI)