Betting Guide and Odds for Rockies vs Reds – July 08, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies kick off a series on July 8, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in what looks to be a matchup of struggling teams. The Reds, sitting at 42-48, have had a below-average season, while the Rockies find themselves in a deeper hole with a 32-58 record, marking a terrible season for the team.

Andrew Abbott will take the mound for the Reds. Abbott, a left-handed pitcher, has a solid 8-6 record with a 3.28 ERA over 17 starts. Despite these numbers, his peripheral stats suggest some luck, as his 4.94 xFIP indicates he may regress. Nonetheless, Abbott’s average innings pitched projection (5.4) and good strikeout projection (6.1) provide the Reds with a stable option. The Reds’ offense, however, has been a weak point, ranking 24th in MLB and batting a dismal 27th in team average. They do lead the league in stolen bases, offering a glimmer of excitement on the basepaths.

Facing Abbott is right-hander Ryan Feltner for the Rockies. Feltner’s season has been rough, posting a 1-7 record with a 5.60 ERA. His xFIP of 4.00 suggests he has been unlucky and might improve. His average projection for strikeouts (5.1) and below-average earned run projection (2.7) offer some hope for the Rockies. Despite an average offense (ranked 17th), the Rockies’ power has been lacking, ranking 24th in home runs.

The Reds are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Tigers on July 7, where they were underdogs with a closing moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%. The Rockies fared even worse, losing 10-1 to the Royals with a closing moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Reds a 56% win probability for this game, higher than their implied win probability of 60%. The betting markets also favor the Reds with a moneyline of -160. Abbott’s matchup against a high-strikeout Rockies offense could be key, as the Rockies rank 4th in strikeouts. Given Abbott’s average strikeout rate, he may find success against this free-swinging lineup.

Overall, the Reds have the edge in this matchup, supported by their projected 5.01 runs and Abbott’s ability to exploit the Rockies’ strikeout tendencies. Expect Cincinnati to take advantage of an inconsistent Rockies team and start the series on a positive note.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Ryan Feltner has had some very poor luck with his ERA this year; his 5.60 mark is considerably higher than his 4.15 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .293 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Andrew Abbott struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last start and compiled 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Colorado’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+12.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)