San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-110
As the San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park on September 15, 2024, both teams come into this matchup with differing stakes. The Giants, with a record of 72-77, have struggled this season and are firmly out of the playoff picture. Conversely, the Padres are looking to solidify their postseason position with an 84-65 record, putting them in contention for a strong Wild Card spot in the National League.
In their last encounter, the Giants faced a tough defeat against the Padres, getting shut out 8-0. This loss continues a downward trend for San Francisco, which has struggled at the plate, ranking 20th in MLB in team batting average and 29th in stolen bases, indicating offensive inefficiencies. Their struggles could be magnified facing Joe Musgrove, who recently pitched six strong innings without allowing an earned run, while striking out eight batters.
On the Giants’ side, Robbie Ray is projected to take the mound. Although he showcased his talent earlier this season, his last start was abbreviated, going just three innings with one earned run. The Padres feature a much stronger offense, ranking 7th in MLB overall and 1st in batting average. With hitters like Jurickson Profar stepping up, they pose a serious challenge for Ray.
Despite the Giants’ tough season, the projections suggest a competitive game, with San Francisco expected to score around 4.21 runs. The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 4th overall, offers them a glimmer of hope in what is poised to be a closely contested matchup. With significant implications for playoff positioning, this showdown is set to be a pivotal moment in both teams’ seasons.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Martin Perez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Martin Perez will surrender an average of 1.8 singles in this outing.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Elias Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineConsidering the 0.77 deviation between Landen Roupp’s 3.44 ERA and his 4.21 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year and figures to see worse results in the future.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jerar Encarnacion – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Jerar Encarnacion has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.6-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The San Francisco Giants have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos, Brett Wisely, Marco Luciano, Jerar Encarnacion).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+9.09 Units / 30% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 67 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Donovan Solano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 31% ROI)