Betting Guide and Odds for Mets vs Brewers – Friday September 27, 2024

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets at American Family Field on September 27, 2024, both teams are vying for playoff positioning in a tight National League race. The Brewers, boasting a solid 91-68 record, are having an impressive season, while the Mets, at 87-70, remain competitive. This matchup marks the first game of the series, with both teams looking to gain an edge as the regular season winds down.

The Brewers will send right-hander Frankie Montas to the mound. Montas has had a challenging season, reflected in his 7-11 win/loss record and a 4.85 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.25 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for better performances. Despite being ranked #101 among starting pitchers, Montas is projected to allow only 2.2 earned runs on average today, which is encouraging for the Brewers.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with left-hander Sean Manaea, who has been more fortunate this season with a 12-5 record and a 3.29 ERA. Despite his #84 ranking among MLB starters, his 3.97 xFIP suggests he might regress. Manaea’s projected to give up 2.5 earned runs, indicating a potentially tight contest.

Offensively, the Brewers rank as the 10th best in MLB, with notable prowess in stolen bases, where they rank 2nd. Willy Adames leads their charge, having played 158 games with 32 home runs and a .797 OPS. Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense is ranked 8th, with power from Francisco Lindor, who has 31 home runs and a .836 OPS.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a slight edge with a 54% win probability, suggesting value in backing Milwaukee. Both teams are expected to score around 4 runs, highlighting the potential for a closely contested game. With both teams having equal moneyline odds, this matchup promises to be an exciting showdown as the postseason approaches.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Sean Manaea has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Frankie Montas should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 85.5-mph mark last year has dropped off to 83.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 151 games (+6.95 Units / 4% ROI)
• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 101 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Jose Iglesias has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)