Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)-115
As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on August 26, 2024, both teams are languishing in the standings, each with a record of 48-83. This National League matchup marks the beginning of a series between two struggling squads, with neither team exhibiting playoff contending form this season. In their last outing, the Rockies fell to the New York Yankees, dropping a disappointing game by a score of 10-3, while the Marlins managed to best the Chicago Cubs, securing a 7-2 victory.
On the mound, Ryan Feltner is set to start for the Rockies. Despite his 1-10 record and an ERA of 5.00, his xFIP of 4.16 suggests he’s faced some misfortune this year, hinting at the potential for improvement. However, his projection of 3.8 innings pitched with 2.3 earned runs allowed indicates that he will need a strong performance to keep the Rockies competitive. Edward Cabrera takes the hill for the Marlins. With a 2-5 record and a troubling ERA of 5.65, Cabrera also shows signs of being unlucky, as he has a better-than-average xFIP of 4.09.
Despite these struggles, the Rockies boast the 12th-best batting average in MLB, which could play to their advantage against a Marlins offense that ranks just 29th. The projections lean in favor of the Rockies, predicting they will score an impressive average of 5.77 runs, suggesting they might have the upper hand in this contest. With both teams vying for a win in a tightly contested matchup, Colorado has a lot to prove in front of their home crowd at Coors Field.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)Edward Cabrera’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2181 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2254 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jesus Sanchez has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .304 figure is quite a bit lower than his .345 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineThe Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Ryan Feltner – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Feltner to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 68 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Jake Cave – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)Jake Cave has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Aaron Schunk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Schunk in the 7th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (-115)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 57 away games (+15.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-165)Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 52% ROI)