Betting Guide and Odds for Mariners vs Red Sox – Tuesday July 30, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park on July 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of solid seasons. The Red Sox boast a record of 56-49, while the Mariners are just behind at 56-52. This game marks the second in the series, following a showdown yesterday.

The Red Sox’s offense has been a powerhouse this season, ranking 4th in MLB. They are known for their potent combination of batting average (4th), home runs (7th), and stolen bases (6th). This offensive firepower could play a significant role in today’s game. On the other hand, the Mariners’ offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall with the worst team batting average. However, their power has been moderate, sitting at 14th in home runs.

Starting on the mound for the Red Sox is left-hander James Paxton. Despite his strong Win/Loss record of 8-2, Paxton’s advanced metrics suggest there could be trouble ahead. His 4.43 ERA is bolstered by a less promising 5.30 xFIP, indicating he may have been fortunate so far. He is also projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to allow 3.1 earned runs and 5.4 hits over an average of 5.1 innings pitched today—both troubling marks.

For the Mariners, right-hander Luis Castillo takes the hill. Castillo has been solid this year with an 8-10 record and a stellar 3.38 ERA. Projections suggest he will allow 3.1 earned runs and 5.9 hits over an average of 5.6 innings pitched today. While these may not be ideal numbers, Castillo’s overall performance and ranking as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB suggest he has a clear advantage over Paxton.

The Red Sox’s bullpen ranks 17th, offering average relief support, while Seattle’s bullpen is stronger, ranked 10th. This could come into play late in the game, especially if the starters falter.

In terms of individual performances, Tyler O’Neill has been red-hot for Boston, hitting .333 with an impressive 1.395 OPS over the last week. Randy Arozarena has been the standout for Seattle, boasting a .368 average and 1.132 OPS in the same span.

With both teams having above-average seasons and the Mariners slightly favored at -120, betting markets anticipate a close game. The Red Sox’s implied team total is 4.64 runs, just shy of Seattle’s 4.86 runs. This high-scoring affair could pivot on key performances from both starting pitchers and the bullpens.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  Luis Castillo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has had bad variance on his side this year. His .277 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .327.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Boston Red Sox Insights

• James Paxton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  James Paxton has relied on his curveball 9.8% more often this season (29.1%) than he did last season (19.3%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Connor Wong has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.45 Units / 40% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.95 Units / 109% ROI)