Betting Guide and Odds for Blue Jays vs Rays – Friday September 20, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the MLB regular season winds down, the Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 20, 2024, at Tropicana Field. Both teams have been eliminated from the American League East race and are having subpar seasons. The Rays hold a 75-78 record, slightly better than the Blue Jays’ 73-80 mark, indicating both teams are playing for pride and future considerations.

In their previous outing, the Rays secured a 2-0 shutout victory against the Boston Red Sox, while the Blue Jays delivered a 4-0 victory over the Texas Rangers, showcasing their ability to dominate when their pitching clicks. Both teams enter this matchup with momentum from shutout wins.

The Rays will rely on Tyler Alexander, a left-hander who has experienced a rough season with a 5.58 ERA. Despite this, his 4.73 xFIP suggests some bad luck, hinting at potential improvement. Alexander’s challenge will be managing a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 6th in MLB for fewest strikeouts. His flyball tendencies might play to his advantage against a Blue Jays team that ranks 25th in home runs.

Opposite Alexander, the Blue Jays will start Jose Berrios, who sports a commendable 3.44 ERA but has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his higher 4.27 xFIP. Berrios benefits from facing a Rays lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 6th in MLB in strikeouts, which aligns well with Berrios’s low strikeout rate.

The Rays’ offensive struggles are apparent, ranking 26th overall and 27th in both batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense sits at an average 15th overall, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. having a standout season, boasting a .322 batting average and a .951 OPS.

The Rays’ bullpen, ranked 3rd, could play a pivotal role in this tight contest, especially against a Blue Jays bullpen ranked 24th. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the game projects to be closely contested, with both teams having equal chances to win. However, given the Rays’ slightly better team ranking and bullpen advantage, they might have the upper hand in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-170)
  Compared to the average hurler, Jose Berrios has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Alexander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tyler Alexander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Alexander in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Josh Lowe is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 149 games (+24.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 56 away games (+12.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)