Bets and Betting Tips for Guardians vs Rays – July 14, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Cleveland Guardians at Tropicana Field on July 14, 2024, in the final matchup of their three-game series. Currently, the Rays sit with a record of 47-48, reflecting an average season so far. Meanwhile, the Guardians boast a 58-36 record, positioning them as one of the top teams this year.

In their last game, the Guardians bested the Rays 4-2, showcasing the strength of their bullpen, which ranks 4th best. Conversely, the Rays’ bullpen, although strong, ranks somewhat lower at 8th. Both teams are projected to start right-handed pitchers, with the Rays’ Ryan Pepiot facing off against the Guardians’ Ben Lively.

Pepiot, ranked #62 among approximately 350 starting pitchers, has shown himself to be above average. With a 4.20 ERA and a record of 5-5 in 16 starts, he is projected to allow just 2.1 earned runs on average today, a great mark. Although Pepiot’s strikeout projections for this game are below-average at 4.6, his high-strikeout nature (27.2 K% this year) could neutralize the Guardians’ low-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th least in MLB in strikeouts.

On the other side, Ben Lively, despite an 8-4 record and a 3.59 ERA, is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 4.17 xFIP suggests he’s been lucky and could regress. He’s coming off a rough outing on July 9, allowing 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Today, projections have him allowing 2.7 earned runs and 5.1 hits, indicating trouble.

The Rays’ offense, ranked 22nd, faces an average Guardians offense, ranked 12th. The Rays struggle with power, ranking 26th in home runs but shine on the bases with the 5th most stolen bases. Their best hitter, Isaac Paredes, has been steady all season. Yandy Diaz has been hot recently, hitting .360 over the last week. The Guardians, led by Jose Ramirez, offer more power, ranking 9th in home runs, while Bo Naylor has provided a spark recently with a 1.089 OPS over the last week.

Betting markets have the Rays slightly favored at -130 with an implied win probability of 54%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rays a 58% chance to win, suggesting value on Tampa Bay in today’s game. With projections favoring the Rays, despite both teams being relatively closely matched, Tampa Bay may have the edge to close out this series strong.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Over his last 3 starts, Ben Lively has suffered a big fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2008 rpm over the entire season to 1941 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Brayan Rocchio has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 81.6-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Ryan Pepiot will concede an average of 2.08 earned runs in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Cleveland’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Yandy Diaz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ben Rortvedt, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-165/+125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 85 games (+18.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-180/+135)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)