Bets and Betting Tips for Braves vs Marlins – September 20, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on September 20, 2024, the matchup presents a significant challenge for the struggling Marlins. Sitting at 56-97, Miami is languishing at the bottom of the National League East and is not in playoff contention. In contrast, the Braves boast a solid 83-70 record, showcasing their above-average performance this season as they vie for postseason positioning.

The Marlins come into this game after a demoralizing 20-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 19, while the Braves arrive on the back of a commanding 15-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. These recent results underscore the contrasting trajectories of these teams as they meet at LoanDepot Park.

Valente Bellozo will take the mound for Miami, bringing with him a 3.70 ERA that belies his underlying 5.46 xFIP, suggesting he has been fortunate in his performances. Bellozo, ranked as the 309th pitcher in baseball, is tasked with containing a powerful Braves lineup that ranks 4th in home runs this season. His high-flyball tendencies could spell trouble against Atlanta’s power hitters.

Charlie Morton starts for Atlanta, offering a steady presence with his 4.01 ERA and a reputation for inducing groundballs. Matched against a Marlins offense that lacks power—ranked 27th in home runs—Morton seems well-positioned to minimize damage. While the Marlins’ Jake Burger has been their standout hitter, Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna brings substantial firepower with 38 home runs and 101 RBIs, alongside a .306 batting average.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, anticipates the Braves as strong favorites, projecting them to score 5.72 runs against the Marlins’ 4.30. With their superior bullpen and offensive prowess, Atlanta is poised to take advantage of Miami’s vulnerabilities as they aim to solidify their playoff ambitions.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Charlie Morton has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 5.7 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Michael Harris II is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Michael Harris II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Valente Bellozo has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of going up against 6 same-handed bats in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Kyle Stowers has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 101.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Jake Burger, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 78 games at home (+33.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 139 games (+33.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+11.95 Units / 39% ROI)