Best Player Prop Bets for Rays vs Dodgers – Sunday, August 25th, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays meet for the third game of their interleague series on August 25, 2024, the stakes are high, especially after the Dodgers suffered a narrow 9-8 defeat to the Rays just yesterday. With the Dodgers sitting at 77-53 and firmly in playoff contention, they are eager to bounce back against a Rays team that is currently 65-64 and battling to keep their season alive.

The matchup features Dodgers’ pitcher Gavin Stone, who has shown flashes of brilliance this season with an impressive 3.44 ERA. Stone is coming off a stellar performance where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and 10 strikeouts. His advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate, but he remains an average pitcher, ranking 116th among approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB. He’s projected to pitch around 5.2 innings today and could be set up for success against a struggling Rays offense that ranks 25th in MLB.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay is sending Jacob Lopez to the mound, a left-handed pitcher with a troubling 8.44 ERA over limited appearances. Lopez’s high flyball rate (61 FB%) could be disastrous against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs this season. Furthermore, Lopez’s control issues, with an 18.5 BB%, make him vulnerable to a patient Dodgers lineup that draws walks at the 2nd highest rate in MLB.

According to projections from the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are favored with an implied team total of 5.34 runs. With their potent offense and a determined Gavin Stone on the mound, the Dodgers look poised to secure a much-needed victory and regain momentum as they head into the final stretch of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+200)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has been unlucky this year. His .281 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Gavin Stone – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Stone to throw 85 pitches today (10th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Max Muncy is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 124 games (+14.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+15.40 Units / 34% ROI)