Best Player Prop Bets for Rangers vs Giants – Sunday, April 27th, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the Texas Rangers at Oracle Park on April 27, 2025, both teams look to build on their recent performances. The Giants, currently sitting at 18-10, are having a solid season, while the Rangers, with a 15-12 record, are also showing promise. In their last matchup on April 26, the Giants edged out the Rangers 3-2, continuing their strong play at home.

The spotlight will be on starting pitchers Jordan Hicks and Jack Leiter. Hicks, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season with a 1-3 record and a concerning 6.59 ERA. However, his 4.16 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky, and he projects to allow an average of 2.3 earned runs today. Despite his high walk rate of 10.5%, he faces a Rangers offense that ranks 28th in MLB, making it difficult for them to capitalize on his control issues.

On the other hand, Jack Leiter has been exceptional, boasting a 2-0 record and a stellar 0.90 ERA in just two starts this season. However, his 2.31 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance, and he projects to pitch only 4.3 innings today. While Leiter’s numbers look impressive, he faces a Giants offense that, despite ranking 21st in batting average, still has the talent to challenge even the best pitchers.

The Giants’ bullpen ranks 4th in the league, providing a significant advantage late in the game. The betting market reflects this close matchup, with the Giants favored at -135 and an expected game total of just 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. Given these factors, the Giants appear to have a slight edge, particularly with Hicks potentially due for a turnaround against a struggling Rangers offense.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jack Leiter to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Joc Pederson is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jordan Hicks has utilized his secondary offerings 11.8% less often this season (32.3%) than he did last season (44.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Typically, batters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jack Leiter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 45% ROI)