Best Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Astros – Wednesday, July 31st, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates face off on July 31, 2024, in the third game of their interleague series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros are having an above-average season with a 55-51 record, while the Pirates find themselves at 54-52, which positions them in the middle of the pack.

Houston’s offense has been stellar this season, ranking 2nd in MLB for team batting average and 9th in home runs. In contrast, Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled, coming in at a lowly 26th in batting average and 23rd in home runs. Given these disparities, the Astros have a notable edge at the plate.

On the mound, Houston’s Framber Valdez, a left-handed pitcher, will be facing Pittsburgh’s righty Luis Ortiz. Valdez has been dependable throughout the year, and his ability to suppress runs will be crucial against a Pirates lineup that has found it difficult to generate offense consistently. Ortiz will have his work cut out for him against an Astros lineup that has been one of the best in baseball.

Recent form highlights some individual performances worth noting. Victor Caratini has been the Astros’ hottest hitter over the past week, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.383 OPS, along with 1 home run in his last four games. On the Pirates’ side, Michael A. Taylor has been excellent, hitting .364 with a 1.227 OPS, 1 home run, and 2 stolen bases in the last five games. These performances could impact the game, especially if either pitcher struggles early.

In their previous game, the Astros showed their offensive prowess, and the Pirates will need to find a way to counter Houston’s firepower. Given the Astros’ offensive strengths and Valdez’s reliability on the mound, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Keep an eye on how both starting pitchers handle the opposing lineups, as this will likely dictate the game’s outcome.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jake Woodford – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Because of his large platoon split, Jake Woodford will benefit from being matched up with 6 bats in the projected batting order of the same handedness in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jared Triolo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+145/-185)
  Framber Valdez’s 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.4-mph drop off from last year’s 94.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck this year. His .308 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .351.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+12.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+195)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 64 games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.70 Units / 52% ROI)