Best Player Prop Bets for Phillies vs Mets – Thursday, September 19th, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

Today’s matchup between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies is a crucial National League East showdown as both teams are contending for playoff positions. The Phillies have been exceptional this season, boasting a 91-61 record, while the Mets are having a solid year at 84-68. The Phillies have a slight edge in the overall power rankings and currently hold a better offensive standing, ranking 4th in MLB for team batting average and offense. In contrast, the Mets’ offense is ranked as the 10th best in MLB, underscoring their capability to produce significant runs when needed.

The Mets are fresh off an impressive 10-0 shutout win against the Nationals on September 18, highlighting their potential to dominate a game. In contrast, the Phillies recently fell short against the Brewers, losing 2-1 in a tight contest. On the mound, the Mets will start Luis Severino, who has a respectable 3.77 ERA this season. However, his advanced metrics suggest he might not sustain his current performance level. Meanwhile, the Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker, whose 6.29 ERA has been a sore spot, though his peripherals indicate he could be due for better outings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this game as a toss-up, with each team holding a 50% projected win probability. However, the Phillies’ implied win probability, based on current betting lines, is just 44%, suggesting potential value on betting them as underdogs. This projection aligns with the idea that the Phillies’ potent offense could exploit weaknesses in the Mets’ bullpen, currently ranked 20th in power rankings. Add in the Mets’ status as a betting favorite with a -140 moneyline, and there could be a strategic opportunity for those favoring an upset.

As the first game of this series unfolds at Citi Field, both teams will be keen to set the tone and gain momentum. The Phillies will rely on their offensive firepower, led by Kyle Schwarber, who has consistently delivered at the plate this season. Meanwhile, the Mets will look for contributions from Francisco Lindor, their top hitter, and Luisangel Acuna, who has been exceptional over the past week. The stage is set for an exciting game as these division rivals vie for supremacy and crucial playoff positioning.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Taijuan Walker to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Luis Severino’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (59.9 vs. 48.9% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under Total Bases
  Tyrone Taylor has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 87.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Mets have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eddy Alvarez, J.D. Martinez, Mark Vientos).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 97 games (+14.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 56 games (+19.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)