Best Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Reds – Friday, May 2nd, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Cincinnati Reds

On May 2, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Washington Nationals at Great American Ball Park as they kick off their first series of the season. The Reds are currently 17-15 and looking to build on a strong performance, having won their last game against the Nationals by a decisive 9-1 score on May 1. Meanwhile, the Nationals are struggling at 14-18 and are in dire need of a turnaround after winning their last game in a close 4-2 contest.

On the mound for Cincinnati will be Hunter Greene, who is projected as the Reds’ best pitcher this season, currently ranked 28th among all starting pitchers in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. Greene boasts an impressive ERA of 2.70 and has demonstrated solid strikeout potential, averaging 6.9 strikeouts per game. However, his projections indicate that he may allow too many hits, averaging 5.0 per outing.

Opposing Greene will be Mitchell Parker for the Nationals, who has struggled this year with a 5.17 xFIP, suggesting he’s likely been lucky to maintain a competitive ERA of 2.65. Parker’s last outing was disastrous, allowing 6 earned runs over just 5 innings, which raises concerns about his ability to handle the Reds’ potent offense, currently ranked 10th in MLB. The Reds also excel in batting average and are 5th in stolen bases, presenting a significant challenge for Parker and the Nationals’ pitching staff, which ranks 24th overall.

Cincinnati enters this matchup as a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -190, reflecting the confidence in their ability to continue their recent success. The Game Total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game, though the Reds’ offensive capabilities might tilt the outcome in their favor.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Mitchell Parker’s 2166-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 19th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 26 games (+3.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 games (+3.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)