Best Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs Astros – (Wednesday, July 10th, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros host the Miami Marlins on July 10, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, with both teams on different trajectories this season. The Astros, sitting at 47-44, are having an above-average season and are looking to solidify their position in the standings. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ dismal 32-59 record reflects a team struggling to find consistency.

Houston’s ace, Framber Valdez, takes the mound with a solid reputation. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Valdez ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB out of about 350 pitchers. This season, he projects to pitch 6.5 innings on average per game, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which is great, and striking out 5.6 batters, which is average. However, he does tend to allow a high number of hits (5.9) and walks (1.7), something to keep an eye on.

The Marlins counter with Bryan Hoeing, who has had a rough season. THE BAT X projects him to pitch only 4.4 innings and allows 2.4 earned runs, which is below average. His strikeout rate of 3.0 batters per game is notably low, and he struggles with allowing hits (4.9) and walks (1.2).

Offensively, the Astros are a powerhouse. They rank 1st in team batting average, 9th in team home runs, and 16th in team stolen bases this season. Alex Bregman has been particularly hot, hitting .333 with an OPS of 1.054, 8 hits, 4 runs, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs over the last week.

In contrast, the Marlins’ offense ranks 23rd in batting average, 30th in home runs, and 24th in stolen bases. Dane Myers has been the bright spot for Miami, boasting a .455 batting average and a 1.357 OPS over the last week, with 5 hits and 1 home run in 4 games.

With the Astros holding a significant edge both on the mound and at the plate, they enter this matchup as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -250. The Marlins, at +210, have a daunting task ahead. The implied team totals suggest Houston will likely score around 4.86 runs, while Miami is projected at just 3.14.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Bryan Hoeing – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Bryan Hoeing will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in this matchup… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Over the past week, Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins bats jointly rank near the bottom of the majors this year ( 7th-worst) in regard to their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Framber Valdez’s 93.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.5-mph drop off from last year’s 94.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Joey Loperfido – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Joey Loperfido has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 78-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)