Best Player Prop Bets for Mariners vs Angels – Friday, August 30th, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Seattle Mariners visit Angel Stadium on August 30, 2024, they do so after a solid victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, winning 6-2. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels are coming off an impressive shutout against the Detroit Tigers, winning 3-0. Both teams enter this matchup with contrasting trajectories this season, with the Mariners sitting at 68-66 and the Angels at 55-79.

The Mariners are projected to start George Kirby, who boasts a strong 3.48 ERA this year and is ranked 25th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. Kirby has shown consistency, averaging 5.7 innings per outing and projecting to allow just 2.3 earned runs today. However, he has struggled with hits allowed, projecting an unflattering 5.4 hits per game.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Carson Fulmer, who has had a rough season with a 0-5 record and an ERA of 4.15. Fulmer’s xERA of 4.65 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year, and his tendency to walk batters could spell trouble against a Mariners lineup that, despite ranking 28th in offense, has shown some flashes of power, ranking 14th in home runs.

Despite their struggles, the Angels’ offense ranks 7th in stolen bases, providing them with a dynamic element that could create scoring opportunities. However, they rank 25th in overall offensive performance, which may hinder their ability to capitalize against a solid pitcher like Kirby.

The projections indicate that the Mariners are favored to win, with a projected team total of 5.26 runs compared to the Angels’ low projection of 3.96 runs. With the Mariners looking to maintain their momentum and the Angels hoping to build on their recent success, this matchup promises to be an intriguing contest as both teams vie for a much-needed victory.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby will “start” for Seattle Mariners today but will serve in the role of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Cal Raleigh has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph dropping to 83.2-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  With 8 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Samuel Aldegheri will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Despite posting a .208 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brandon Drury has had some very poor luck given the .091 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Zach Neto pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+7.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 away games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 46 games (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)