Best Player Prop Bets for Cubs vs Cardinals – Tuesday, June 24th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on June 24, 2025, they find themselves in a critical National League Central matchup. The Cardinals currently sit with a record of 43-36, while the Cubs boast a stronger 46-32 mark. This game is particularly important for the Cardinals as they aim to close the gap in the standings against their division rivals.

In their last meeting, the Cubs edged out the Cardinals in a closely contested game, highlighting the competitive nature of this series. The Cardinals are projected to start Michael McGreevy, who has had an up-and-down season so far, with a 1-1 record and an impressive ERA of 2.70 over just two starts. However, his 3.39 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and he faces a tough challenge against a potent Cubs lineup that ranks 4th in MLB offensively.

On the other side, the Cubs will send Jameson Taillon to the mound. Taillon has a solid 7-4 record with a respectable ERA of 3.84, but his FIP of 4.81 indicates he might not be as effective as his numbers suggest. Both pitchers project to allow around 2.7 to 2.9 earned runs today, which aligns with the high Game Total of 9.0 runs.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 15th overall, with a strong batting average but struggles in home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Cubs rank 4th in MLB, showcasing their power with 3rd in home runs and an impressive lineup that includes hitters with high OPS. The projections favor the Cubs slightly, giving them an implied team total of 4.55 runs compared to the Cardinals’ 4.45 runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Batters such as Kyle Tucker with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Michael McGreevy who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-120)
  The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Michael McGreevy has been lucky since the start of last season, notching a 2.27 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.98 — a 1.71 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 76 games (+11.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)