Athletics vs Giants Prediction and Game Breakdown – Tuesday July 30, 2024

Oakland Athletics

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will host the Oakland Athletics at Oracle Park on July 30, 2024, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. The Giants are having an average season with a 53-55 record, while the Athletics are enduring a rough 44-64 campaign. Occupying 2nd place in their respective divisions, both teams are looking to gain some momentum as they embark on this Interleague series.

San Francisco, slated as a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -175, will rely on Robbie Ray, the #48 pitcher per THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Ray, a lefty, has been solid in his limited starts this season, boasting a 1-0 record with a stellar 1.80 ERA. However, Ray’s excellent ERA contrasts with his 3.54 xFIP, suggesting he might have been a bit fortunate and could regress.

Ray is projected to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters, which should bode well against the Athletics’ high-strikeout offense, ranked 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. Yet, Ray’s high flyball rate (71 FB%) could play to Oakland’s strength; they are ranked 4th in MLB in home runs this season.

Oakland will counter with JP Sears, another lefty, who has struggled this year with a 7-8 record and a 4.81 ERA. He’s projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, which isn’t promising against the Giants’ #12 ranked offense. Though Sears has good control with a 6.6 BB%, he’ll face a Giants lineup that ranks 6th in drawing walks, potentially mitigating one of San Francisco’s offensive strengths.

Both bullpens play a critical role in this matchup. San Francisco’s bullpen is ranked 1st per our power rankings, demonstrating elite talent that can close out games. Conversely, Oakland’s bullpen, ranked 23rd, has had its share of struggles, which could be a significant factor late in the game.

Jorge Soler has been red-hot for the Giants recently, hitting .478 with a 1.375 OPS over his last seven games. He’ll look to continue his torrid pace against the Athletics. Seth Brown has been equally impressive for Oakland, posting a .563 batting average and a 1.588 OPS over his last six games.

With a projected team total of 4.53 runs for the Giants and 3.47 for the Athletics, this game could hinge on whether Ray’s underlying metrics catch up to him or if Oakland’s offense can capitalize on his flyball tendencies. Given the Giants’ favorable position and robust bullpen, they have a solid chance to take the first game of this series.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Out of all starting pitchers, JP Sears’s fastball spin rate of 2109 rpm ranks in the 10th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Lawrence Butler is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-200)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Matt Chapman has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+165)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+8.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 27 games (+19.40 Units / 72% ROI)