Athletics vs Cardinals Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 9/02/2025

Athletics

@

St. Louis Cardinals

On September 2, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Oakland Athletics at Busch Stadium for the second game of their interleague series. After a tough outing yesterday, the Cardinals look to bounce back. The Athletics edged out a close contest, showcasing their offensive prowess against a struggling St. Louis team.

Currently, the Cardinals sit at 68-71, having experienced an average season. Their offensive performance ranks 22nd in MLB, particularly struggling with power, as evidenced by their 25th ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics are at 64-75, but their offense has been impressive this year, ranking 9th overall and 4th in batting average. This stark contrast in offensive capability could play a crucial role in today’s matchup.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. Although he has a Win/Loss record of 6-10 and an ERA of 5.04, the projections suggest he may be due for a better performance. Mikolas, known for his high flyball rate (38 FB%), faces a powerful Athletics lineup that has already hit 190 home runs this season—the 6th most in MLB.

Luis Severino will counter for Oakland, with a record of 6-11 and an ERA of 4.82. While his numbers are not stellar, his 4.10 FIP indicates he may have been unlucky this season, suggesting potential for improvement.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs and betting markets treating this as a close matchup, both teams will be looking to capitalize on their strengths. The Cardinals’ bullpen ranks 11th in MLB, providing some reassurance against an Oakland bullpen that sits at 29th. Given the Cardinals’ need for a strong performance to stay competitive, this matchup promises to be intense as both teams aim for a crucial win.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (-110)
  The Athletics infield defense projects as the 3rd-best among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nicholas Kurtz has been lucky this year, compiling a .432 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .353 — a .079 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Miles Mikolas has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 54 games (+5.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 76 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Nolan Gorman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+6.50 Units / 93% ROI)