Houston Astros
New York Yankees
(-120/+100)-115
On August 8, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium for the first game of a pivotal series. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, with the Yankees holding a record of 61-54 and the Astros at 64-51. The Yankees recently edged out the Astros in their last matchup, winning 3-2, while the Astros fell 6-4 in their previous game.
The Yankees will send Cam Schlitter to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.58. Although Schlitter is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, he may face challenges against the Astros’ offense, which ranks 11th overall in MLB. However, Schlitter’s high walk rate (12.5 BB%) could be less of an issue against an Astros lineup that has been patient at the plate, ranking 5th least in walks.
On the other side, the Astros will counter with Hunter Brown, who boasts a stellar 9-5 record and an impressive 2.47 ERA, placing him 16th among MLB starters. Brown is coming off a strong performance where he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. His projections indicate he will strike out 6.3 batters today, which could be a significant factor against a Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in MLB overall and leads in home runs.
Despite the Yankees’ recent success and their top-tier offense, the betting markets currently favor the Yankees at -120, implying a close contest. With both teams vying for a crucial win, this matchup promises to be tightly contested, especially with the Yankees’ powerful lineup facing off against a strong pitcher in Brown.
Houston Astros Insights
- Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Hunter Brown’s 96.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 90th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Taylor Trammell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Taylor Trammell has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Positioned 8th-steepest in the game this year, Houston Astros bats collectively have posted a 14.8° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced stat to evaluate power skills).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
New York Yankees Insights
- Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Cameron Schlittler has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Trent Grisham has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Yankees – 2H MoneylineThe New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+11.37 Units / 22% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 115 games (+16.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1700)Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+15.20 Units / 217% ROI)