Astros vs Twins Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – July 06, 2024

Houston Astros

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros are set for the second game of their series on July 6, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, currently at 49-39, are having a strong season, whereas the Astros, at 46-42, are also performing well. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, making each game increasingly crucial. Yesterday’s matchup was a thriller, with Minnesota falling 13-12 to Houston in a high-scoring affair.

Joe Ryan takes the mound for the Twins, who are slight favorites with a -135 Moneyline, implying a 55% chance of victory. Ryan has been impressive this season, boasting a 3.21 ERA over 17 starts, and is ranked the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Though his Win/Loss record is only 5-5, his underlying stats highlight his prowess. Ryan projects to allow just 2.5 earned runs and strike out 6.9 batters in today’s game, both solid numbers.

On the other side, Hunter Brown will get the start for the Astros. Brown, ranked the 39th best starting pitcher, has a 4.07 ERA this season but an xERA of 3.33, indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky. He’s managed a 6-5 record over 16 starts and projects to allow 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.9 batters. Despite his higher ERA, the projections suggest he could perform better going forward.

Key offensive matchups include Minnesota’s powerful lineup, which ranks 6th in both overall and home runs, against Brown’s solid groundball rate. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense leads MLB in batting average, posing a challenge for Ryan, who relies heavily on strikeouts.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Twins a 54% chance of winning, reflecting a close contest. With the Game Total set at 7.5 runs, expect another competitive match as both teams look to gain an edge in this pivotal series.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his last 3 starts, Hunter Brown has produced a sizeable increase in his fastball velocity: from 95 mph over the whole season to 96 mph lately.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Typically, bats like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston’s 91.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #27 squad in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a substantial edge over groundball pitchers, Joe Ryan and his 41.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today’s outing matching up with 1 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Max Kepler is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.50 Units / 71% ROI)