Astros vs Orioles Game Highlights – Sunday, August 25, 2024

Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros for the fourth game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 25, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions as the regular season approaches its climax. The Orioles currently sit at 76-55, having a remarkable season and ranking 1st in MLB in home runs, while the Astros are at 69-60, enjoying an above-average year. The Orioles edged the Astros in their last outing, winning 3-2, and will aim to build on that momentum.

On the mound, Dean Kremer is set to start for the Orioles. He’s had a rough season with a 6-9 record and a 4.30 ERA, placing him 162nd among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, suggesting that he has struggled overall. However, Kremer’s last start showed signs of improvement, as he went 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 7 batters. This performance might offer a glimmer of hope for the Orioles, as they rely on him to navigate through a potent Astros lineup.

Yusei Kikuchi will oppose Kremer for the Astros. With a similar 6-9 record and a 4.37 ERA, Kikuchi ranks 74th among starting pitchers, highlighting his above-average performance this season. His last outing was solid as well, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings with 7 strikeouts. Despite both pitchers having similar records, Kremer’s higher walk rate (9.9 BB%) might play into the Astros’ favor, as they have the 4th least walks in the league.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles have a win probability of 54% for this matchup. With their strong offensive capabilities—ranking 5th in the league overall—the Orioles are expected to score around 4.52 runs, while the projections give the Astros an average of 4.43 runs. As both teams seek to gain an edge, the outcome remains uncertain, making this contest a compelling watch for fans and bettors alike.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all SPs, Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Chas McCormick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.221) provides evidence that Chas McCormick has suffered from bad luck this year with his .192 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+130)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Dean Kremer is expected to ring up an average of 16.3 outs in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jackson Holliday has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Austin Slater has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 68 of their last 125 games (+19.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 123 games (+15.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+15.05 Units / 34% ROI)