Astros vs Mariners Injury Report – Friday, July 19, 2024

Houston Astros

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros are set to face off on July 19, 2024, at T-Mobile Park in an American League West showdown. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mariners sporting a 52-46 record and the Astros close behind at 50-46. The Mariners, who recently lost to the Angels 3-2 on July 14, will look to bounce back against a strong Astros lineup that also suffered a defeat, falling 4-2 to the Rangers on July 14.

Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Mariners, bringing a solid 3.53 ERA and an 8-9 record over 20 starts. Castillo has been particularly effective lately, pitching six shutout innings with five strikeouts in his last outing on July 11. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a 55% win probability, suggesting a slight edge for Seattle.

Hunter Brown will start for the Astros, holding an average 4.39 ERA and a 7-6 record through 18 starts. Despite his higher ERA, Brown’s peripheral stats, like his 3.69 xFIP, indicate he’s been somewhat unlucky this season. His recent form has been encouraging, allowing just two earned runs over six innings in his last start on July 12.

Offensively, the Astros have the upper hand. Houston’s lineup ranks 9th in MLB, bolstered by Yordan Alvarez’s impressive .296 batting average and 0.912 OPS. In contrast, the Mariners’ offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall and dead last in team batting average. However, Seattle does have some pop, ranking 10th in home runs.

With both teams projected to score under four runs, expect a low-scoring affair. The Mariners’ slight edge in starting pitching and the home-field advantage could tip the scales in their favor. Betting markets reflect a close game, with the Mariners’ moneyline at -115 and the Astros at -105.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Hunter Brown’s slider utilization has dropped by 20.1% from last year to this one (25.1% to 5%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jon Singleton can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Houston Astros have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jon Singleton, Joey Loperfido, Trey Cabbage).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Luis Castillo has experienced a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2168 rpm over the entire season to 2090 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Houston (#2-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-210)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 57 games (+16.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.80 Units / 24% ROI)