Angels vs Yankees Prediction and Game Breakdown – Thursday August 8, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will welcome the Los Angeles Angels to Yankee Stadium on August 8, 2024, for the third game of a crucial series. The Yankees are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 8-2 defeat to the Angels in their previous encounter on August 7, where they were substantial favorites. With a record of 68-47, the Yankees are enjoying a strong season, sitting firmly in playoff contention. In contrast, the Angels have struggled this year at 50-64, ranking 25th in MLB offense.

On the mound, Nestor Cortes is projected for the Yankees. Although his 5-9 record and 4.16 ERA indicate struggles at times this season, he ranks as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, suggesting he has the talent to deliver a strong performance. Cortes projects to pitch an average of 5.7 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters. However, his tendency to allow 4.8 hits and 1.3 walks could be concerning against a powerful lineup.

The Angels counter with Tyler Anderson, who has been below average this season. With an 8-10 record and a standout 3.05 ERA, his xFIP of 4.81 indicates potential regression, implying he may not sustain his current success. Anderson’s projections show he could struggle against the Yankees’ explosive offense, which ranks 2nd in home runs with 149 this season.

THE BAT X projects the Yankees as heavy favorites, forecasting them to score an impressive 5.67 runs, while the Angels are pegged for a mere 3.95 runs. Given the Yankees’ offensive prowess, they appear poised to rebound and secure a victory in this pivotal matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Tyler Anderson’s 88.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 1st percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Zach Neto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Los Angeles Angels have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Aaron Judge has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.2-mph to 106.2-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 68 games (+21.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Zach Neto has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+18.10 Units / 453% ROI)