Angels vs Rangers Match Preview and Winning Probability – Thursday April 17, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Texas Rangers

On April 17, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Field in a crucial American League West showdown. The Rangers are having a solid season with an 11-7 record, while the Angels sit at 9-8, both teams vying to establish early dominance in the division. In their last game, the Rangers fell to the Angels, adding some urgency to this matchup as they aim to even the series.

The Rangers will send Kumar Rocker to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this year with an 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 7.94. Despite this, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, as his 4.83 xFIP projects a better performance moving forward. Rocker is known for generating ground balls (50% GB%), which could play to his advantage against an Angels offense that has been powerful this season, ranking 3rd in MLB with 30 home runs.

Opposing him will be Jack Kochanowicz, who also carries a less-than-stellar ERA of 5.74, despite a 1-1 record. The projections indicate that Kochanowicz has also faced his share of bad luck, though he is marked as one of the worst pitchers in the league. His low strikeout rate (13.6% K%) suggests that he may struggle against a Rangers lineup that strikes out less frequently than most, ranking 5th in MLB for the least strikeouts.

Offensively, the Angels boast the 8th best lineup in MLB, compared to the Rangers, who rank 24th. While betting lines favor the Rangers at -145 with an implied total of 5.12 runs, the Angels also bring significant firepower with an implied team total of 4.38 runs. All eyes will be on how these two pitchers perform, as the Rangers look to bounce back and regain traction in the series.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to league average, Jack Kochanowicz has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -7.9 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Mike Trout generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kumar Rocker.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, J.D. Davis, Kyren Paris, Jorge Soler).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Texas Rangers Insights

• Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With 7 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Kumar Rocker figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Joc Pederson has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 13.1% rate last year has decreased to 3.6% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 49% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 51% ROI)