Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Tigers vs Angels Match Preview – May 01, 2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Los Angeles Angels

On May 1, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium in the first game of a crucial series. The Tigers enter the matchup riding high after their recent victory, while the Angels are struggling, having lost their last game by a score of 9-3. With the Angels sitting at 12-17 this season, they’ve faced challenges, particularly with their offense, which ranks 27th in MLB.

The Angels will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, who has had a rough start to the season with a 0-4 record and an average ERA of 4.31. Despite being ranked as the 116th best starting pitcher in MLB, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat lucky this season. Kikuchi’s low strikeout rate (20.0 K%) could be tested against a high-strikeout Tigers lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other hand, Casey Mize takes the mound for the Tigers, boasting an impressive 4-1 record and a stellar 2.12 ERA. Mize has also been effective in limiting walks, which could play into his favor against an Angels offense that ranks as the 1st least patient in MLB. However, projections indicate he may be due for a slight regression.

With the Tigers’ offense ranked 11th overall, they are positioned well to exploit Kikuchi’s vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Angels’ power-hitting capabilities, ranking 6th in home runs, could turn Mize’s flyballs into damaging plays. As the game total is set at 8.5 runs, bettors might find this matchup particularly intriguing, especially given the close moneyline odds favoring the Tigers at -135. The Angels, despite their struggles, have the potential to surprise if their hitters can capitalize on Mize’s flyball tendencies.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Casey Mize has utilized his change-up 8.6% more often this season (26.7%) than he did last year (18.1%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Spencer Torkelson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last year’s 89-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Trey Sweeney).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s 2187-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a sizeable 102-rpm decline from last year’s 2289-rpm rate.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  When it comes to his batting average, Jo Adell has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .204 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .235.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)
  Zach McKinstry has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)