Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Reds vs Nationals Match Preview – July 19, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on July 19, 2024, at Nationals Park, both teams find themselves in the middle of underwhelming seasons. The Nationals come in with a 44-53 record, while the Reds are slightly better at 47-50. However, none of these teams have positioned themselves as playoff contenders.

Taking the mound for Washington is lefty Patrick Corbin, who has struggled mightily this season. Corbin holds a 5.57 ERA, which ranks him as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings (#313 out of around 350). Despite his poor surface stats, his xFIP of 4.44 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and might see better days ahead. Corbin’s record sits at 1-9 through 19 starts, and he projects to allow 3.1 earned runs over an average of 5.2 innings.

Frankie Montas counters for Cincinnati, bringing a 4.38 ERA into the game. Montas has been an average performer on the mound, with a 4-7 record in 17 starts. The projections indicate he will pitch around 5.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, aligning with his current season averages.

Offensively, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. Washington’s offense ranks as the 26th best in MLB, a very poor standing. Despite this, they have been strong on the basepaths, currently ranking 3rd in stolen bases. On the flip side, Cincinnati’s offense is ranked 16th and has displayed a good mix of power and speed, leading MLB in stolen bases.

Key players to watch include Washington’s CJ Abrams, who boasts a .268 batting average with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz has been a standout with 17 home runs, 46 stolen bases, and an impressive .830 OPS.

The bullpen matchups could be critical, as both teams have struggled in this area. Washington’s bullpen is dead last in MLB Power Rankings, while Cincinnati’s relief corps isn’t much better, ranking 24th.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Reds have a 54% chance of winning this game. With the Nationals’ implied win probability sitting at 46%, and given the pitching and offensive matchups, the Reds appear to have a slight edge as they go into Nationals Park. The high Game Total of 9.5 runs suggests that this could be an offensive showcase, making every inning crucial.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Frankie Montas has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Spencer Steer has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 79.2-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Patrick Corbin’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (53.8% vs. 41.5% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, notching a .353 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .039 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+8.65 Units / 7% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+125)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 away games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)