Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Phillies vs Marlins Match Preview – September 06, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

On September 6, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies at LoanDepot Park in a pivotal National League East matchup. The Phillies have been on a tear, boasting an 82-59 record this season, while the Marlins are struggling below average at 65-76. In their last game, the Marlins dropped the first contest of this series to the Phillies, who are looking to solidify their strong postseason position.

Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is set to take the mound, despite having a tough season with an 8-11 record and a troubling 5.66 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, as his xFIP stands at a more favorable 4.30, indicating potential for improvement. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, but his average strikeout rate of 4.6 batters could be a concern against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who has had a solid year with a 12-6 record and a 4.05 ERA. Luzardo’s impressive strikeout ability, with a K% of 27.9, will be critical against the Marlins’ offense, which ranks just 21st in MLB. Luzardo’s projections are promising, as he is expected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow only 2.3 earned runs.

The Marlins’ offense struggles with power, ranking 27th in home runs, which could be detrimental against a Phillies pitching staff that ranks 2nd in bullpen effectiveness. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting balanced expectations from both sides. With the Phillies favored at -155, the Marlins, listed as underdogs at +135, will need to capitalize on their chances to improve their standing.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Max Kepler has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .296 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .336 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Compared to average, Sandy Alcantara has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 66 games (+12.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+17.61 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)