Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Dodgers vs Rockies Match Preview – September 27, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Colorado Rockies

As the calendar turns to September 27, 2024, the Colorado Rockies host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field in a National League West showdown. The Rockies, struggling with a 61-98 record, have long been out of playoff contention, while the Dodgers, with a stellar 95-64 record, are cruising towards the postseason.

Both teams are coming off wins; the Rockies edged out the Cardinals 10-8, and the Dodgers handled the Padres with a decisive 7-2 victory. However, the Rockies’ season woes are reflected in their status as big underdogs, with an implied win probability of just 38%, while the Dodgers are favored with a 62% chance of victory. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, giving the Dodgers a 64% win probability while projecting them to score 7.81 runs on average.

On the mound, Cal Quantrill takes the start for the Rockies. Although his 8-10 record and 4.72 ERA are average, advanced metrics rank him as the 257th best starter in MLB, highlighting his struggles. Quantrill’s high walk rate could be exploited by the Dodgers’ patient lineup, which ranks 2nd in drawing walks. Meanwhile, Tony Gonsolin starts for Los Angeles. Despite being below-average according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gonsolin will look to bounce back after a rough outing in August.

Offensively, the Rockies have been average, ranking 18th in overall offense, while the Dodgers boast the 2nd best lineup, powered by Shohei Ohtani’s MVP-caliber season. Ohtani has been scorching hot, hitting .609 with a 1.667 OPS over the last week. The Rockies will need strong performances from their lineup, particularly from Charlie Blackmon, who has been their best hitter recently, to keep pace with the high-powered Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tony Gonsolin – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tony Gonsolin is projected to throw 70 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-175)
  Will Smith is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Shohei Ohtani projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Cal Quantrill has gone to his change-up 11.7% more often this season (34.1%) than he did last season (22.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Charlie Blackmon stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Compared to their .334 overall projected rate, the .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 95 games (+17.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (-115/-115)
  Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+14.70 Units / 45% ROI)