Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+145
As the Colorado Rockies host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 27, 2024, the stakes are markedly different for these National League West rivals. The Dodgers have had a stellar season, boasting a 95-64 record, while the Rockies, sitting at 61-98, have struggled mightily. With the Dodgers vying for playoff positioning, they come into this game as the heavy favorites.
The Dodgers will send Ben Casparius to the mound, a right-hander who has seen limited action this season. Despite his excellent 2.25 ERA, projections suggest he might be due for regression, given his 3.68 xFIP. Casparius faces a Rockies lineup that ranks 17th in offense, featuring average power but limited patience at the plate. In contrast, the Dodgers’ offense is a powerhouse, ranking 2nd in MLB, with Shohei Ohtani leading the charge. Ohtani’s recent tear, posting a .609 batting average and a 1.667 OPS over the last week, further highlights the challenge facing the Rockies.
Colorado counters with Cal Quantrill, who brings a pedestrian 4.72 ERA into this matchup. Quantrill’s struggles with control (10.5 BB%) could be exploited by a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in drawing walks. The Rockies’ bullpen, ranked 16th, will need to step up against a Dodgers offense projected to score 7.36 runs on average, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.
Despite the Rockies’ recent victory over the Cardinals, the odds are stacked against them. They enter as significant underdogs with a moneyline of +155, while the Dodgers are pegged at -180. However, projections give the Rockies a slightly better chance than the odds suggest, with a 42% win probability. Whether this will translate into an upset at Coors Field remains to be seen.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)Ben Casparius is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Teoscar Hernandez has a ton of pop (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill doesn’t generate many whiffs (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Shohei Ohtani projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Cal Quantrill has gone to his change-up 11.7% more often this season (34.1%) than he did last season (22.4%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Ezequiel Tovar’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 75.7-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Compared to their .333 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+145)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 95 games (+17.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (-115/-115)Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+14.70 Units / 45% ROI)