Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Dodgers vs Rockies Match Preview – September 27, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 27, 2024, at Coors Field in a National League West matchup. The Rockies, sitting at 61-98, have endured a challenging season and are not in playoff contention. In stark contrast, the Dodgers boast an impressive 95-64 record, positioning them as one of the top teams in the league and favorites for a deep playoff run.

On the mound, the Rockies will send Cal Quantrill, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season, to start. With a 4.72 ERA and a ranking of #257 out of approximately 350 starting pitchers, Quantrill faces an uphill battle against the Dodgers’ potent offense. The Dodgers rank 2nd in offense and are known for their patience at the plate, ranking 2nd in walks drawn, which could exploit Quantrill’s control issues.

Tony Gonsolin, also a right-hander, will take the mound for the Dodgers. While Gonsolin is rated as a below-average pitcher, he will benefit from the support of the Dodgers’ 2nd-ranked bullpen. Both starters are projected to pitch poorly, with Gonsolin allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs over 4.0 innings and Quantrill projected to give up 3.9 earned runs over 4.5 innings.

Offensively, the Rockies have been average, ranking 18th in overall offense and 15th in home runs. Their recent standout, Charlie Blackmon, has been on a tear, hitting .381 with a 1.481 OPS over the last week. Conversely, the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani has put up a staggering .609 batting average with a 1.667 OPS in the same period.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers hold a significant edge with a 64% win probability, while the Rockies are seen as big underdogs with just a 36% chance to win. Despite the Rockies’ projected 5.52 runs, the Dodgers’ high-powered lineup is expected to score 7.81 runs, emphasizing their dominance heading into the series opener.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tony Gonsolin – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tony Gonsolin is projected to throw 70 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-175)
  Will Smith is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Shohei Ohtani projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Cal Quantrill has gone to his change-up 11.7% more often this season (34.1%) than he did last season (22.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Charlie Blackmon stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Compared to their .334 overall projected rate, the .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under Game Total
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 95 games (+17.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (-115/-115)
  Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+14.70 Units / 45% ROI)