Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for D-Backs vs Red Sox Match Preview – August 24, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Fenway Park on August 24, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this Interleague matchup. The Red Sox, currently sitting with a record of 67-60, are having an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks boast a solid 73-56 record, indicating they are also performing well. Yesterday, the Diamondbacks decisively defeated the Red Sox 12-2, a result that will surely weigh on Boston’s mindset heading into today’s game.

On the mound, the Red Sox are projected to start right-hander Kutter Crawford, who holds a record of 8-10 and an ERA of 4.21 this season. While his Power Rankings place him as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB, his peripherals suggest he may have been fortunate, given his elevated FIP of 4.76. Crawford’s recent performance has been uneventful, as evidenced by his last outing where he allowed three earned runs over five innings.

In contrast, Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ right-handed ace, enters this game with a 9-6 record and a commendable 3.85 ERA, ranking 39th among starting pitchers. Gallen has showcased his potential despite a rough last outing where he surrendered four earned runs. However, the projections indicate he may be primed for improvement today.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 4th in MLB in team batting average, while the Diamondbacks sit just behind at 2nd. The projections favor the Red Sox, suggesting they could score around 5.00 runs today, compared to the Diamondbacks’ 4.76 runs. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, bettors may find value in backing the Red Sox to bounce back after a tough loss.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Zac Gallen has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .309 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kutter Crawford.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Connor Wong has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 85 games (+22.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 71 games (+21.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 15 games (+18.00 Units / 120% ROI)