Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Cubs vs Phillies Match Preview – June 10, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of their series on June 10, 2025. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Phillies sitting at 38-28 and the Cubs slightly ahead at 40-26. Given their strong records, this matchup carries significance as both teams look to solidify their standings moving forward.

In their previous game, the Cubs edged out the Phillies in a tightly contested battle, which adds extra pressure for Philadelphia to bounce back in front of their home crowd. The projections suggest that Mick Abel, who has a stellar 0.79 ERA this season, could face challenges despite his impressive stats. Though his ERA suggests a solid performance, his 2.40 xFIP indicates that he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. Abel projects to pitch just 4.7 innings and allow an average of 2.9 earned runs, which could be a concern against a potent Cubs lineup.

Colin Rea, on the other hand, has a 3.59 ERA this season and is more experienced with 10 starts under his belt. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing around 3.2 earned runs, which makes him a slightly more reliable option in this matchup.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 4th in MLB, boasting a robust batting average and home run totals, while the Phillies’ offense is ranked 10th, showcasing their capability to score runs. However, the Cubs have the momentum from their last win, and their superior offensive ranking could give them an edge. Betting markets are treating this matchup as a close contest, with both teams currently set at -110 on the moneyline, reflecting a balanced outlook for this intriguing game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Nico Hoerner has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 82.2-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has experienced some positive variance this year. His 41.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.2.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies hitters as a group rank among the elite in the majors this year (10th-) as far as their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+7.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 games (+6.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI)