Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-130
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 29, 2024, at Fenway Park, both teams find themselves in a crucial matchup within the American League East. The Red Sox, currently holding a record of 69-64, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays sit at 65-70, struggling to find their footing. The stakes are high as the Red Sox look to build on their recent success, having shut out the Blue Jays 3-0 in their last game on August 28.
On the mound, Kutter Crawford is projected to start for the Red Sox. Crawford, ranked as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has had a mixed season with an 8-11 record and a 4.19 ERA. However, his recent performance suggests he may be trending in the right direction, having pitched well in his last outing, allowing only 2 earned runs in 5 innings. With a high flyball rate of 45%, Crawford may find an advantage against a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season.
Bowden Francis takes the hill for the Blue Jays, and while he has shown flashes of brilliance, his overall performance has been subpar, making him a less favorable option. His 4.02 ERA is decent, but he has allowed too many walks and hits, which could be problematic against a Red Sox offense that ranks as the 3rd best in MLB. The projections suggest that Boston will score around 4.57 runs, which aligns with their high implied team total of 4.50 runs.
With the Red Sox looking to capitalize on their recent momentum and the Blue Jays struggling to find consistency, this matchup presents an opportunity for Boston to solidify their standing in the division.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)Bowden Francis is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Kutter Crawford’s curveball rate has decreased by 5.6% from last year to this one (12.1% to 6.5%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)This season, Tyler O’Neill has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.8 mph compared to last year’s 92.8 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Boston Red Sox today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .328 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 74 of their last 133 games (+7.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 33 away games (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Triston Casas has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)