Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Angels vs Rockies Match Preview – September 21, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies host the Los Angeles Angels on September 21, 2025, in a matchup that holds little significance in the standings, as both teams are out of contention. The Rockies, currently sitting at a dismal 42-113 record, are struggling through a dreadful season, while the Angels’ 70-85 mark reflects a below-average performance. In their last encounter, the Rockies were shut out by the Angels in a 3-0 loss, continuing a tough stretch for the home team.

On the mound, Colorado is projected to start lefty Kyle Freeland, who has had an underwhelming season with a Win/Loss record of 4-16 and an ERA of 5.14. Freeland has struggled in recent outings, getting blown up for six earned runs in his last start on September 16, 2025, against the Angels. Meanwhile, Los Angeles counters with right-hander Caden Dana, who has had an equally rough campaign, posting a 0-2 record with an ERA of 7.45. Dana also got hit hard in his last start, allowing five earned runs over just four innings.

The Angels’ offense ranks 4th in MLB in team home runs this season—a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing year. Despite this power, their batting average is the worst in the league at 30th, indicating a significant inconsistency. Conversely, the Rockies rank 27th in offensive output, making it difficult for them to support Freeland on the mound.

Betting markets have this game as a near toss-up, with both teams holding a moneyline of -110. However, projections suggest that the Rockies have the potential to perform better than expected, especially against Dana, whose control issues could be exposed by Colorado’s impatient lineup. With a high game total set at 11.5 runs, the offense—while struggling—might find a way to make an impact in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Caden Dana – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Caden Dana has recorded 11.8 outs per game per started since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Kyle Freeland has relied on his curveball 6.7% more often this season (25.6%) than he did last season (18.9%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.225) provides evidence that Hunter Goodman has experienced some positive variance this year with his .281 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Colorado Rockies will record 6.24 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams in action today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 155 games (+16.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 66 of their last 113 games (+15.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Nolan Schanuel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)