Analyze the Royals vs Giants Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Kansas City Royals

@

San Francisco Giants

On May 21, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Kansas City Royals at Oracle Park, marking the third game of their interleague series. The Giants, currently sitting at a solid 29-20, are having a great season and are coming off a narrow victory against the Royals, winning 3-2 in their last outing on May 20. In contrast, Kansas City is slightly behind at 27-23, showcasing an above-average performance this season.

The pitching matchup features Logan Webb for the Giants, who is enjoying a standout season with a 2.42 ERA and a ranking as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. Webb’s recent form is impressive; he pitched well in his last start, going 8 innings while allowing just 1 earned run. He projects to pitch an average of 6.7 innings today but has some concerning stats, including an average of 6.5 hits allowed.

On the other side, Daniel Lynch is set to start for the Royals. Despite his 1.29 ERA, projections indicate that he may have been fortunate this season, as his xFIP sits at 4.95, suggesting regression could be on the horizon. Lynch’s last outing was a struggle, where he allowed 8 earned runs over just 4 innings.

Offensively, the Giants rank 17th overall, with their best hitter performing well lately, recording a .318 batting average over the last week. In contrast, the Royals’ offense ranks 27th in MLB, struggling significantly with power, hitting the fewest home runs this season.

The Giants are favored for this matchup, with a moneyline of -205, reflecting their strong season and the perceived advantage in the pitching duel. As they aim to build momentum, this matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they navigate the competitive landscape of MLB.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Daniel Lynch – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Daniel Lynch IV to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Michael Massey is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Logan Webb has utilized his slider 6.5% more often this year (27.8%) than he did last season (21.3%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87.4-mph average last year has decreased to 82.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-210)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+4.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+16.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-175/+135)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)