Analyze the Padres vs Rockies Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, May 10, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Colorado Rockies

The San Diego Padres will take on the Colorado Rockies on May 10, 2025, in a critical National League West matchup at Coors Field. After a grueling contest yesterday, the Padres eked out a win, besting the Rockies 13-9, further cementing their strong season with a record of 24-13. Meanwhile, the Rockies continue to struggle mightily, sporting an abysmal 6-32 record on the year.

Projected starters for this game are Bradley Blalock for the Rockies and Stephen Kolek for the Padres. Blalock, who is ranked as the 298th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a rough start to the season, with an ERA of 8.03 in just two appearances. His last outing on May 3 saw him go 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, which reflects his current struggles on the mound. The projections suggest he will pitch around 4.3 innings today while permitting 3.3 earned runs, which isn’t encouraging.

In contrast, Stephen Kolek, despite being another pitcher noted for his struggles, has performed well in his limited time, boasting a flawless 0.00 ERA after his last stellar outing. However, his projected performance indicates he might allow 3.0 earned runs and 6.1 hits, which could provide the Rockies a glimmer of hope.

Offensively, the Padres rank 12th overall but shine with a .317 batting average, showcasing their ability to produce runs. The Rockies’ offense, ranked 28th, has been underwhelming, averaging nearly 5 runs per game in their projections but struggling to convert those into wins.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-240)
  The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  In terms of his batting average, Elias Diaz has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .260 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .227.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  Bradley Blalock is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan McMahon has strong power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (29.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Stephen Kolek struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Alan Trejo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  When assessing his overall offensive skill, Alan Trejo ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+5.72 Units / 24% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-240)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (-125/-105)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 36% ROI)