Analyze the Nationals vs Pirates Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Thursday, September 05, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On September 5, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Washington Nationals at PNC Park in the first game of a series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 65-74 and the Nationals at 62-77. The Pirates recently suffered a heavy defeat, losing to the Chicago Cubs 12-0, while the Nationals narrowly fell to the Miami Marlins, 4-3.

Pittsburgh is projected to start Bailey Falter, a left-handed pitcher with a 6-7 record and an average ERA of 4.41. Despite his average ERA, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat lucky this season, as his xERA sits at 5.05. Falter’s ability to generate strikeouts has been limited, with a low strikeout rate of 16.8 K%. He will face a Nationals lineup that ranks 6th in the league for least strikeouts, which could work against him.

Jake Irvin will take the mound for Washington, bringing a record of 9-11 and an ERA of 4.08. While Irvin’s numbers are slightly better than Falter’s, he also struggled in his last outing, allowing 7 earned runs over 5 innings. Both pitchers project to pitch around 5.2 innings today, but each is likely to allow a significant number of hits and walks.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 27th in MLB, while the Nationals are just ahead at 22nd. Despite their low rankings, Pittsburgh’s best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, has been productive, with a .280 batting average and 22 home runs this season. Meanwhile, CJ Abrams leads the Nationals with 18 home runs but has struggled to provide consistent power.

The projections favor the Pirates, suggesting they have a better chance of winning than the betting markets imply. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, bettors may find value in backing the Pirates as they look to turn their fortunes around against a fellow struggling team.

Washington Nationals Insights

• The underlying talent of the Washington Nationals projected lineup today (.289 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .302 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+170)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 103 games (+10.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 away games (+7.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)