Analyze the Mariners vs Angels Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Thursday, July 24, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels

The Seattle Mariners visit the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium for the first game of their series on July 24, 2025. Both teams are looking to bounce back after disappointing losses in their last outings; the Mariners fell to the Texas Rangers 10-2, while the Angels lost to the Kansas City Royals 6-3. This matchup is particularly significant as the Angels, currently at 49-53, are struggling below average this season, while the Mariners, at 54-48, are performing notably better.

On the mound, Yusei Kikuchi is projected to start for the Angels. Despite his average ranking as the 96th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a solid ERA of 3.13. Kikuchi’s last start on July 19 saw him go five innings, allowing only two earned runs and striking out eight batters, which bodes well for his performance today. However, he has been somewhat lucky this season, as indicated by his 4.03 xFIP, suggesting potential for regression.

In contrast, Logan Evans will take the mound for the Mariners. He has been less effective, ranking among the worst pitchers in the league. With an ERA of 3.81 and a concerning 4.56 xFIP, he is projected to struggle against an Angels offense that, despite being average overall, ranks 4th in home runs. The Angels’ ability to hit for power could exploit Evans’s weaknesses today.

From a betting perspective, the Angels are favored with a moneyline of -145, and projections indicate they will score around 4.82 runs. Given Kikuchi’s recent performance and the Mariners’ offensive inconsistency, the Angels may have the upper hand in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Logan Evans’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (75.4% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Los Angeles’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Dylan Moore, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (94.2 mph) below where it was last year (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Mike Trout has big-time HR ability (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (26.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Logan Evans doesn’t generate many whiffs (25th percentile K%) — great news for Trout.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-145)
  The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Los Angeles Angels.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-145)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+12.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+13.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 24% ROI)