Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Yankees vs Mariners – Monday May 12, 2025

New York Yankees

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the New York Yankees on May 12, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on recent outings. The Mariners come into this matchup with a record of 22-17, having lost their last game on May 11 by a score of 9-1. The Yankees, at 23-17, are fresh off a dominating 12-2 victory, showcasing their potent offense that ranks 1st in MLB.

In this first game of the series, Mariners’ Emerson Hancock is set to take the mound against Yankees’ Clarke Schmidt. Hancock, currently ranked 234th among starting pitchers, has struggled this season with a 5.70 ERA and a 1-1 record in five starts. However, he performed admirably in his last outing on May 6, going six innings while allowing only 2 earned runs. His ability to induce ground balls (with a 49% ground ball rate) could be crucial against a Yankees lineup that has already belted 70 home runs this season.

Clarke Schmidt, on the other hand, brings a more favorable profile to this matchup. Ranked 66th among MLB starters, Schmidt has a 4.79 ERA but has been unfortunate in his performances this year, with a projected ERA significantly lower at 3.13. He will need to refine his control as he battles a Mariners offense that ranks 7th overall.

The Mariners have shown they can hit for power, ranking 5th in home runs, but they also struggle with strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Yankees, with their high-powered lineup, are expected to take advantage of any lapses from Hancock. Despite the Mariners being underdogs with a moneyline of +125, the power rankings suggest they could surprise given the Yankees’ vulnerability to patient hitters and Hancock’s groundball prowess. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations of an engaging contest.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Clarke Schmidt is expected to wring up 5.6 strikeouts in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Cody Bellinger may have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• New York Yankees bats as a unit grade out in the league for power this year when using their 12.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Emerson Hancock has relied on his sinker 13.8% more often this season (43.6%) than he did last year (29.8%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-160/+125)
  Emerson Hancock has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 36% ROI)