Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Rockies vs Red Sox – Monday July 07, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Boston Red Sox

On July 7, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park, marking the first game of an interleague matchup. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, with the Red Sox sporting a 46-45 record and the Rockies struggling at 21-69. The Red Sox have been inconsistent, but they won their last game 6-4 against the Seattle Mariners, while the Rockies snapped a losing streak with a similar 6-4 victory over the San Francisco Giants.

Richard Fitts is slated to start for the Red Sox, bringing a 0-3 record this season. While his 4.50 ERA appears average, his 5.71 xERA and 5.95 FIP suggest he has been fortunate thus far. Fitts is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, though he has been struggling with strikeouts, averaging only 4.3 per game. Notably, he faces a Rockies lineup that has the 2nd most strikeouts in MLB, which could play to his advantage.

On the mound for the Rockies will be Austin Gomber, who is 0-1 with a disappointing 5.49 ERA. His recent form included a decent outing on July 2, where he went 5 innings with 2 earned runs, but overall his numbers leave much to be desired. He projects to allow 3.5 earned runs and 6.3 hits, while his low strikeout rate of 6.9 K% makes him a less favorable match against the 3rd best offense in MLB, the Red Sox.

Betting lines show the Red Sox as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -240, indicating a strong expectation of victory. With the Red Sox’s offense ranking 5th in the league and the Rockies at 25th, the odds favor Boston. The projected game total stands at a high 10.5 runs, reflecting the potential for scoring. The Red Sox aim to capitalize on their offensive strength against a struggling Rockies team, making this matchup crucial for both clubs moving forward.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Austin Gomber’s 88.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 2.2-mph decrease from last year’s 90.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Mickey Moniak has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Hunter Goodman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to league average, Richard Fitts has been granted a below-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an -12.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#3-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Boston Red Sox in today’s game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+9.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.15 Units / 31% ROI)