Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Nationals vs Brewers – Saturday July 13, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers (54-41) will host the Washington Nationals (43-52) on July 13, 2024, for the second game of their series at American Family Field. The Brewers are currently having a good season and are contending for a playoff spot in the National League, while the Nationals are trailing behind with a below-average season.

On the mound for Milwaukee will be left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who has struggled this year, ranking #302 among approximately 350 MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Keuchel’s ERA stands at 4.61###101, but his 5.33 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and could regress. Despite these challenges, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Keuchel to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs on average today.

Washington will counter with another left-hander, Mitchell Parker, who has had a solid season with a 3.44 ERA over 16 starts. However, his 3.98 xFIP indicates some luck as well. Parker is projected to pitch 4.7 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs on average today. Both pitchers have metrics suggesting they might struggle, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair.

Offensively, the Brewers hold an advantage. Milwaukee boasts the 8th best offense in MLB, particularly excelling in batting average (#4) and stolen bases (#2). In contrast, the Nationals rank 24th overall, struggling particularly with power as they sit 29th in home runs. Christian Yelich has been on fire for the Brewers, hitting .368 with 2 homers and a 1.257 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Keibert Ruiz has been hot for the Nationals, posting a .381 average and 1.143 OPS over the same period.

Overall, despite Keuchel’s struggles, Milwaukee’s potent offense and slightly better bullpen give them the edge. With a current moneyline at -130 and an implied win probability of 54%, the Brewers are favored, though it’s expected to be a close contest.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Mitchell Parker has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 8 opposite-handed bats today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Juan Yepez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Dallas Keuchel – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Out of all SPs, Dallas Keuchel’s fastball velocity of 87.6 mph ranks in the 1st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Sal Frelick stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+7.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 85 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)