Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Mets vs Rockies – Thursday August 08, 2024

New York Mets

@

Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the New York Mets on August 8, 2024, the stakes are high despite neither team being in contention for a division title. The Rockies currently sit at 42-73, while the Mets are a more respectable 60-54, highlighting the stark contrast in their seasons. In their most recent clash on August 7, the Rockies fell to the Mets, losing 5-3, which marked a continued struggle for the Rockies as they look to turn around a disappointing season.

On the mound, the Rockies will send Austin Gomber to the hill. Gomber’s season has been underwhelming, with a 3-7 record and a 4.66 ERA. However, he did pitch well in his last outing, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs. Still, his overall performance has him ranked 154th among MLB starters, indicating a tough matchup against the Mets’ lineup.

David Peterson will take the mound for New York. Although he is considered a below-average pitcher, Peterson has been effective this season with a 5-1 record and a solid 3.47 ERA. His last start also saw him throw 6 innings with just 2 earned runs. Given that he faces a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts, he may find some success in keeping their batters off balance.

Interestingly, projections suggest the Rockies could score 5.50 runs in this matchup, which is higher than their implied team total of 4.82 runs. This discrepancy presents a potential betting opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the Rockies as underdogs. With the game total set at a high 10.5 runs, fans can expect an action-packed game at Coors Field.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  David Peterson’s 2133-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 20th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  Jose Iglesias is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Austin Gomber is projected to throw 83 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-most on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Jacob Stallings is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Aaron Schunk – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Schunk in the 4th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+8.70 Units / 44% ROI)