Analyze the Astros vs Guardians Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, September 28, 2024

Houston Astros

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros gear up for the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Guardians, with a solid 92-68 record, are enjoying a great season and have already secured a playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Astros, sitting at 87-73, are having an above-average season and are in the thick of the playoff race.

In their last matchup on September 27, the Astros managed a 5-2 victory over the Guardians, showcasing their offensive prowess. The Astros’ offense, ranked 8th in MLB, boasts an impressive team batting average that sits 3rd in the league. Yordan Alvarez has been a standout performer for Houston, contributing significantly with a .308 batting average and 35 home runs for the season.

The Guardians, on the other hand, possess a balanced attack. Their offense ranks 19th overall, but with a 5th-ranked stolen base capability, they bring a dynamic element to the game. José Ramirez has been the linchpin for Cleveland, delivering clutch performances and maintaining a .277 batting average with 38 home runs.

On the mound, the Guardians will start Ben Lively, who has had a respectable season with a 13-9 record and a 3.80 ERA. Lively’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against an Astros lineup that is tough to strike out. Meanwhile, the Astros will counter with Justin Verlander. Despite his 5.55 ERA, Verlander is projected to perform better, as his peripheral stats suggest he’s been unlucky.

The betting market sees the Guardians as slight favorites with a -140 moneyline, implying a 56% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests the Astros might be undervalued, projecting a 50% win probability for both teams. This game promises to be a closely contested battle, with the Astros potentially offering value for bettors willing to back an underdog.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball bats, Justin Verlander and his 41.4% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s game matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jon Singleton has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 82.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ben Lively’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (60.2 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Typically, hitters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+14.70 Units / 56% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 152 games (+15.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)