Analyze the Astros vs Guardians Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, September 28, 2024

Houston Astros

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 28, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Guardians, boasting a strong 92-68 record, are in the thick of the playoff race, while the Astros, with an 87-73 record, are also battling for postseason positioning. This American League matchup at Progressive Field marks the second game in a crucial series between these contenders.

The Guardians will send Ben Lively to the mound, a right-hander who has posted a solid 13-9 record with a 3.80 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.50 suggests that he might have benefited from some good fortune, indicating potential vulnerabilities against an Astros lineup ranked 9th best in MLB. Despite his low strikeout rate, Lively faces an Astros offense that is the 3rd toughest to strike out, potentially putting added pressure on the Guardians’ defense.

Justin Verlander, starting for the Astros, has had a challenging season with a 5.55 ERA, but peripheral stats indicate he has been unlucky. His xERA of 4.03 suggests improvement could be on the horizon. Verlander will need to navigate a Guardians lineup that ranks 16th best in offense but is notably adept at avoiding strikeouts and stealing bases, ranking 5th in stolen bases.

Offensively, both teams have standout performers. Jose Ramirez has been sizzling for Cleveland, hitting .368 with a 1.347 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker is equally hot for Houston, batting .400 with a 1.228 OPS in the same span.

Betting markets and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both see this as a tightly contested game. With the Guardians having a slight edge in moneyline odds, their elite bullpen, ranked 1st, could prove decisive against the Astros’ strong, but 7th-ranked bullpen. As both teams vie for postseason glory, this game promises drama and intensity.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball bats, Justin Verlander and his 41.4% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s game matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jon Singleton has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 82.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Ben Lively’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (60.2 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Typically, hitters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+14.70 Units / 56% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 152 games (+15.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)