Analyze the Angels vs Mariners Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on July 24, 2024, the American League West rivals find themselves in very different positions this season. The Mariners, currently 53-50, are having an average season and sit in the middle of the division standings. Meanwhile, the Angels are enduring a tough year with a 44-57 record and are not in playoff contention.

Yesterday’s matchup saw the Mariners fall to the Angels 5-1, with Seattle unable to capitalize on their favored status. The Mariners had a closing Moneyline price of -160, reflecting an implied win probability of 60%, but they couldn’t get the job done. Conversely, the Angels, who had an implied win probability of 40% with a Moneyline price of +140, pulled off the upset.

On the mound, Seattle will start Luis Castillo, who has been a solid presence this season. Castillo, ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X, boasts a respectable 3.55 ERA and an 8-10 Win/Loss record. Castillo is projected to pitch 6.2 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, while striking out 6.5 batters on average.

In contrast, the Angels will counter with Griffin Canning, who has struggled mightily this season. With a 5.20 ERA and a 3-10 Win/Loss record, Canning ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. His last start was particularly rough, allowing 6 earned runs over just 3 innings. The projections are not kind either, forecasting Canning to allow 2.5 earned runs in 5.4 innings while striking out 5.6 batters.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. Seattle’s lineup ranks 28th in MLB, with a dreadful 30th place in team batting average. However, they do possess some pop, ranking 11th in home runs. The Angels’ offense isn’t much better, ranking 23rd overall and 21st in team batting average, though they are 7th in stolen bases.

The Mariners are favored for today’s game with a Moneyline of -165, reflecting a 60% implied win probability. THE BAT X projects the Mariners as a big favorite with a 62% chance to win, suggesting a slight edge in value for bettors. The Mariners are projected to score 4.09 runs, while the Angels are expected to put up 3.37 runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Over his last 3 starts, Griffin Canning has produced a notable rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2104 rpm over the whole season to 2168 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Brandon Drury has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .164 BA is quite a bit lower than his .236 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Luis Castillo has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Victor Robles has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Tyler Locklear – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)
  Tyler Locklear has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+9.20 Units / 184% ROI)