Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Royals vs Phillies – September 12th, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Philadelphia Phillies

On September 12, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Kansas City Royals at Citizens Bank Park in what marks the first game of an interleague series. The Phillies, currently in a strong position with an impressive record of 87-60, are looking to continue their success against a Royals team that has struggled to keep pace at 74-73. Notably, Walker Buehler of the Phillies is projected to take the mound, while Michael Lorenzen will be starting for Kansas City.

Buehler has had a season filled with ups and downs, holding a 7-7 record with a 5.45 ERA. Despite these struggles, he’s projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs while striking out only 3.9 batters per outing. This low-strikeout tendency could be beneficial against a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB.

Offensively, the Phillies boast the 5th best lineup in the league according to advanced projections, highlighted by a potent 3rd place ranking in team batting average. The Phillies have also shown power, ranking 9th in home runs, which could pose a challenge for Lorenzen, who has a less-than-stellar record of 5-10 and a 4.63 ERA.

Kansas City’s offense, ranked 25th overall, has struggled to find consistency, particularly in their power numbers, sitting at 27th in home runs. This matchup heavily favors the Phillies, not only because of their offensive strength but also due to the robust performance of their bullpen, which ranks 4th in MLB.

With the game’s total currently set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, but the projections tilt toward a Phillies victory. This game could serve as an opportunity for Philadelphia to solidify its playoff positioning as they face a Royals team that is finding it difficult to keep pace.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Lorenzen to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (4th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kyle Isbel’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90-mph EV last season has decreased to 85.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 7.7% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals makes them the #25 group of hitters in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Walker Buehler has gone to his slider 12.6% more often this season (22.1%) than he did last season (9.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Max Kepler has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .297 rate is deflated compared to his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Harrison Bader pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 92 games (+17.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 89 of their last 143 games (+30.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-250)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 12% ROI)